ICME (Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection) are violent phenomena of solar activity that affect the whole heliosphere and the prediction of their impact on different solar system bodies is one of the primary goals of the planetary space weather forecasting. We present some results from the application of the P-DBM (Probabilistic Drag Based Model) to propagate a sample of ICMEs from their sources on the solar surface into the heliosphere. We made use of recent works who tracked the ICMEs through their journeys using data from several spacecraft, tracing the ICMEs trajectory further than Earth. Considering the extremely short computation time needed by the P-DBM to propagate ICMEs into the whole heliosphere, and its accuracy in reproducing the observations, we remark that it is a promising candidate for ICME Time of Arrival computation for Space Weather applications and for the need of present and future interplanetary missions, since it could be used as quick tool to forecast the arrival of ICME to planetary bodies in our Solar System other than the Earth.

The probabilistic drag based model for ICME propagation

Napoletano G.;Pietropaolo E.
2019

Abstract

ICME (Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection) are violent phenomena of solar activity that affect the whole heliosphere and the prediction of their impact on different solar system bodies is one of the primary goals of the planetary space weather forecasting. We present some results from the application of the P-DBM (Probabilistic Drag Based Model) to propagate a sample of ICMEs from their sources on the solar surface into the heliosphere. We made use of recent works who tracked the ICMEs through their journeys using data from several spacecraft, tracing the ICMEs trajectory further than Earth. Considering the extremely short computation time needed by the P-DBM to propagate ICMEs into the whole heliosphere, and its accuracy in reproducing the observations, we remark that it is a promising candidate for ICME Time of Arrival computation for Space Weather applications and for the need of present and future interplanetary missions, since it could be used as quick tool to forecast the arrival of ICME to planetary bodies in our Solar System other than the Earth.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11697/136907
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