Deep learning-assisted development and validation of an algorithm for predicting the growth of persistent pure ground-glass nodules

Background: The prediction of the persistent pure ground-glass nodule (pGGN) growth is challenging and limited by subjective assessment and variation across radiologists. A chest computed tomography (CT) image-based deep learning classification model (DLCM) may provide a more accurate growth prediction. Methods: This retrospective study enrolled consecutive patients with pGGNs from January 2010 to December 2020 from two independent medical institutions. Four DLCM algorithms were built to predict the growth of pGGNs, which were extracted from the nodule areas of chest CT images annotated by two radiologists. All nodules were assigned to either the study, the inner validation, or the external validation cohort. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and areas under the ROC curve (AUROCs) were analyzed to evaluate our models. Results: A total of 286 patients were included, with 419 pGGN. In total, 197 (68.9%) of the patients were female and the average age was 59.5±12.0 years. The number of pGGN assigned to the study, the inner validation, and the external validation cohort were 193, 130, and 96, respectively. The follow-up time of stable pGGNs for the primary and external validation cohorts were 3.66 (range, 2.01-10.08) and 4.63 (range, 2.00-9.91) years, respectively. Growth of the pGGN occurred in 166 nodules [83 (43%), 39 (30%), and 44 (45%) in the study, inner and external validation cohorts respectively]. The best-performing DLCM algorithm was DenseNet_DR, which achieved AUROCs of 0.79 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70, 0.86] in predicting pGGN growth in the inner validation cohort and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.79) in the external validation cohort. Conclusions: DLCM algorithms that use chest CT images can help predict the growth of pGGNs.