The distributional effects of labour market deregulation: Wage share and fixed-term contracts

Since the 1980s, most advanced economies have massively 'flexibilized' their labour markets by reducing the protection against layoffs and introducing temporary and flexible contracts. Concurrently, a well-established economic stylized fact - the stability of the wage share of income - has been challenged as empirical evidence reveals a substantial decline in labour share across numerous countries. In this study, we aim to empirically investigate the causal link between these two phenomena by examining the impact of changes in the regulation of fixed-term contracts, as measured by variation over time in the temporary contracts EPL index, on the functional distribution of income. We employ Jorda's local projection method for a panel of 18 advanced countries over the period 1985-2019 and show that reforms that deregulate fixed-term contracts consistently reduce the wage share.