Time Series Forecasting of Runtime Software Metrics: An Empirical Study

Software applications can produce a wide range of runtime software metrics (e.g., number of crashes, response times), which can be closely monitored to ensure operational efficiency and prevent significant software failures. These metrics are typically recorded as time series data. However, runtime software monitoring has become a high-effort task due to the growing complexity of today's software systems. In this context, time series forecasting (TSF) offers unique opportunities to enhance software monitoring and facilitate proactive issue resolution. While TSF methods have been widely studied in areas like economics and weather forecasting, our understanding of their effectiveness for software runtime metrics remains somewhat limited. In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of four TSF methods on 25 real-world runtime software metrics recorded over a period of one and a half years. These methods comprise three recurrent neural network (RNN) models and one traditional time series analysis technique (i.e., SARIMA). The metrics are gathered from a large-scale IT infrastructure involving tens of thousands of digital devices. Our results indicate that, in general, RNN models are very effective in the runtime software metrics prediction, although in some scenarios and for certain specific metrics (e.g., waiting times) SARIMA proves to outperform RNN models. Additionally, our findings suggest that the advantages of using RNN models vanish when the prediction horizon becomes too wide, in our case when it exceeds one week.