Climate variations, of short- and long-term, pose a major sustainability challenge, with potential farreaching economic and social impacts, including fluctuations in agricultural yields and subsequent volatility in prices and the availability to populations of essential food resources. To investigate the effects of short- and long-term climate variation on crop yields, the four provinces of the Abruzzo region, in central Italy, were studied in terms of temperature, precipitation and agricultural yields of wheat, olive and grape. This study illustrates a detailed statistical analysis involving climatic variables and crop yields over the time range 1952-2014, at a provincial scale in the Abruzzo Region. To individuate variations in the correlation between agricultural production and climatic condition over time, the statistical correlation was analyzed between indices, such as standardized precipitation indexes (SPI and SPEI) calculated over different months of the year, with the oscillations of crop yield around the trend, described by standardized residual yield series (Guerriero et al., 2023). Such correlation has been calculated for several time windows, each of thirty years wide, over the time range 1952-2014. The results are summarized as follows: – In the studied provinces, the maximum and minimum daily temperatures show variation in the trend over the past 60 years; – In the studied provinces, climate is moving from temperate towards temperate-arid, with an increase in drought intensity and persistence, starting from the 1980s; – The correlation analysis highlighted an increase in correlation between crop yield and climatic fluctuations, over the past 60 years. Such rise can be interpreted as an increasing sensitivity of the agricultural production system to climate fluctuations, over time. Although the considered agricultural production system exhibits a progressive yield growth, an increase in correlation between production and climatic fluctuations highlights, on the one hand, an inability of the system itself to maintain high performance even in unfavorable climatic conditions. On the other hand, yield fluctuations (even positive ones) always represent a potential disturbing element of related market equilibria.
Climate variations and crop yields: a sustainability issue illustrated by a case study from the Abruzzo region, Italy
Guerriero V.;Scorzini A. R.;Iulianella S.;Di Bacco M.;Tallini M.
2024-01-01
Abstract
Climate variations, of short- and long-term, pose a major sustainability challenge, with potential farreaching economic and social impacts, including fluctuations in agricultural yields and subsequent volatility in prices and the availability to populations of essential food resources. To investigate the effects of short- and long-term climate variation on crop yields, the four provinces of the Abruzzo region, in central Italy, were studied in terms of temperature, precipitation and agricultural yields of wheat, olive and grape. This study illustrates a detailed statistical analysis involving climatic variables and crop yields over the time range 1952-2014, at a provincial scale in the Abruzzo Region. To individuate variations in the correlation between agricultural production and climatic condition over time, the statistical correlation was analyzed between indices, such as standardized precipitation indexes (SPI and SPEI) calculated over different months of the year, with the oscillations of crop yield around the trend, described by standardized residual yield series (Guerriero et al., 2023). Such correlation has been calculated for several time windows, each of thirty years wide, over the time range 1952-2014. The results are summarized as follows: – In the studied provinces, the maximum and minimum daily temperatures show variation in the trend over the past 60 years; – In the studied provinces, climate is moving from temperate towards temperate-arid, with an increase in drought intensity and persistence, starting from the 1980s; – The correlation analysis highlighted an increase in correlation between crop yield and climatic fluctuations, over the past 60 years. Such rise can be interpreted as an increasing sensitivity of the agricultural production system to climate fluctuations, over time. Although the considered agricultural production system exhibits a progressive yield growth, an increase in correlation between production and climatic fluctuations highlights, on the one hand, an inability of the system itself to maintain high performance even in unfavorable climatic conditions. On the other hand, yield fluctuations (even positive ones) always represent a potential disturbing element of related market equilibria.Pubblicazioni consigliate
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