Urbanization thresholds and land consumption: a spatial analysis in Italy.

Land consumption represents a crucial challenge for sustainability, particularly for Europe, which through the European Green Deal has set the target of “No Net Land Take by 2050.” In the absence of a national framework law, in Italy regulation is delegated to the Regions, generating inconsistencies in definitions and methods. This study applies a municipal-scale methodology based on Istat data and the Urban Density index to simulate expansion scenarios. The results reveal strong heterogeneity, unsustainable critical values in metropolitan areas, and weak correlations between demographic dynamics and urbanization, highlighting the need for more coherent and scientifically grounded criteria.