This study investigates lithosphere–atmosphere interactions during the 2016 Central Italy seismicsequence, providing the first systematic analysis of atmospheric impacts across the entire series within acomplex tectonic setting. The static displacement fields of the main events were modeled using the Okadaformulation and validated against GPS observations. Using realistic seismic inputs, including fault geometryand slip distribution, we ensured accurate source representation, crucial for simulating the generation ofAcoustic Gravity Waves (AGWs). Our results demonstrate that earthquakes belonging to the same sequence,with similar origins and focal mechanisms, can nonetheless produce distinct co‐seismic atmospheric responses.The comparison between observations and our MILC model driven by the lithospheric constraints ensures thereliability of AGW. While moderate‐to‐strong events can generate AGWs, their detection could be hindered byconcurrent meteorological variability. The strongest event of the analyzed seismic sequence exemplifies thiscomplexity: while ERA5 data revealed AGWs, the contemporaneous synoptic weather charts, including meansea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height fields, indicated active meteorological conditions over thestudy region, suggesting that part of the observed atmospheric response may have been influenced bybackground meteorological variability and highlighting the challenge of unambiguously separating seismogenicsignatures from natural atmospheric variability. These findings strengthen the robustness and applicability ofthe LAIC modeling framework to real‐world scenarios. They provide critical insights into the variability ofatmospheric responses to earthquakes and highlight future research toward the reliable characterization ofco‐seismic lithosphere–atmosphere signals in the broader context of hazard assessment and risk mitigation
From Fault Ruptures to Atmospheric Perturbations:Examining the 2016 Norcia Seismic Sequence
Giulia D’AngeloFormal Analysis
;M. PiersantiSupervision
2026-01-01
Abstract
This study investigates lithosphere–atmosphere interactions during the 2016 Central Italy seismicsequence, providing the first systematic analysis of atmospheric impacts across the entire series within acomplex tectonic setting. The static displacement fields of the main events were modeled using the Okadaformulation and validated against GPS observations. Using realistic seismic inputs, including fault geometryand slip distribution, we ensured accurate source representation, crucial for simulating the generation ofAcoustic Gravity Waves (AGWs). Our results demonstrate that earthquakes belonging to the same sequence,with similar origins and focal mechanisms, can nonetheless produce distinct co‐seismic atmospheric responses.The comparison between observations and our MILC model driven by the lithospheric constraints ensures thereliability of AGW. While moderate‐to‐strong events can generate AGWs, their detection could be hindered byconcurrent meteorological variability. The strongest event of the analyzed seismic sequence exemplifies thiscomplexity: while ERA5 data revealed AGWs, the contemporaneous synoptic weather charts, including meansea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height fields, indicated active meteorological conditions over thestudy region, suggesting that part of the observed atmospheric response may have been influenced bybackground meteorological variability and highlighting the challenge of unambiguously separating seismogenicsignatures from natural atmospheric variability. These findings strengthen the robustness and applicability ofthe LAIC modeling framework to real‐world scenarios. They provide critical insights into the variability ofatmospheric responses to earthquakes and highlight future research toward the reliable characterization ofco‐seismic lithosphere–atmosphere signals in the broader context of hazard assessment and risk mitigationPubblicazioni consigliate
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