Short-Term Forecasting of Municipal Load Through a Kalman Filtering Based Approach

The paper illustrates some results of a research activity in the field of electric short-term load forecasting (STLF) applied to load areas of municipal or regional extension. To this aim a forecasting procedure has been implemented that is based on time series (univariate) model using a Kalman filtering approach. The model has been applied to data available for a municipal electric utility in Italy. The results thus obtained are reported in the paper and discussed. Some guidelines are finally deduced for farther research work still required in this specific field of forecasting problems.