Expected reduction in overweight prevalence by increasing physical activity in Italian adult population: contibution of national surveillance data in public prevention planning.

Background. Since 2007, in Italy, a national surveillance system on NCDs and related risk factors in the general adult population, named ‘PASSI’ (Progressi nelle Aziende Sanitarie per la Salute in Italia), collects data by means of computer assisted telephone interviews, monthly distributed, on a sample weighted by age, sex and area of residence, representative at regional level. For each health issue the protocol defines a pattern of indicators similar to other national surveillance systems [1]. The study is aimed at assessing the value of the ongoing surveillance system in providing evidence for health promoters and health planners, by analysing a subset of PASSI data referring to the Abruzzo Region. Physical activity (PA) and weight status (WS) have been selected as appropriate examples. Methods. 5003 records on subjects 18-69ys aged (49.2% males) were collected from 2008 to 2012. The temporal trend of PA and WS indicators have been described by gender. Moreover, by means of a longitudinal panel regression, the expected reduction in overweight/obesity prevalence associated to a hypothetical increase of active people proportion has been estimated, considering socio-demographic confounders and the ‘time’ as critical dimension in the surveillance. Results. The overweight prevalence in the overall 2008-2012 pooled data was higher in males (41.4% vs 26.6% in females, p<0.001), and the same was true obesity prevalence (11.5% vs 9.7%, p<0.001). In both gender groups, the obesity proportion decreased during the observation period (of 5.3% in males, p<0.001; and of 2.9% in females, p<0.001), revealing a sort of leveling off already noted in children’s obesity [2]. Only 31.8% of males reached the minimum of recommended daily PA level and 25.3% of females (p<0.001). Only a quarter of the sample declared that some health care operators counselled them an active daily lifestyle. With a regression analysis we estimated that, in females, the proportion of weight excess should decrease by 1% if around 25% of them ‘simply’ increases their activity up to minimum recommended level (150 min/week of at least moderate PA), (about 4500 females). This reduction, even if little, represents the effect of PA increase alone, not considering diet habits. Moreover, for weight gain prevention, the volume of recommended PA is higher (300 min/week) [3]. Conclusion. In the fight vs weight excess at population level, PA increase appears an appropriate goal, particularly for females. References 1. Epicentro – Istituto Superiore di Sanità. La Sorveglianza PASSI. http://www.epicentro.iss.it/passi/ accessed on March 2nd 2014 2. Olds T, Maher C, Zumin S et al. Evidence that the prevalence of childhood overweight is plateauing: data from nine countries. Int J Pediatr Obes. 2011 Oct;6(5-6):342-60. 3. Brown WJ, Bauman AE, Bull FC, Burton NW. Development of Evidence-based Physical Activity Recommendations for Adults (18-64 years). Report prepared for the Australian Government Department of Health, August 2012.