Persistent fear of aftershocks, impairment of working memory, and acute stress disorder predict post-traumatic stress disorder: 6-month follow-up of help seekers following the L'Aquila earthquake.

"The aim of our 6-month follow-up study was to assess predictors of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among individuals seeking treatment at the General Hospital Psychiatric Unit within the first month following the L'Aquila earthquake. Clinical, trauma-related and neurocognitive variables were considered. At the 6-month follow-up, 91 (74.5%) out of 122 subjects were re-assessed and administered the Impact of Events Scale-revised (IES-R) for the detection of PTSD according to DSM-IV criteria. Within 4 weeks following the earthquake, patients were assessed with a checklist of traumatic-event-related variables, along with the Stanford Acute Stress Disorder Questionnaire (SASDQ) for the detection of ASD, with a short battery on working (Wechler Memory Scale-R, Digit Forward and Backward) and verbal memory (subtest of Milan Overall Dementia Assessment, MODA). A statistically significant higher proportion of subjects affected by 'partial' ASD showed a PTSD diagnosis (80.6%, N = 29) compared to not diagnosed subjects (40%, N = 22) and a PTSD diagnosis was shown by all the 4 subjects (4.4%) affected by 'full' ASD at the entry in the study. At the 6-month follow-up 56% of the sample could be considered affected by PTSD on the IES-R scale. The results of the logistic regression analysis on our selected predictors indicated that the persistent fear of aftershocks seemed to increase by over 57 times the likelihood of positive estimate of PTSD, followed by impairment of working memory backward (OR 48.2), and having being diagnosed as ASD case in the first 4 week after the earthquake (OR 17.4). This study underlines the importance of identifying PTSD predictors, in order to planning early treatment interventions after natural disasters. "