Potenzialità del Digital Twin per le conoscenze e la pianificazione del rischio da disastri

The evolution of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) enables the development of innovative tools, such as the Digital Twin (DT), to support territorial planning within the frameworks of Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA), Disaster Risk Management (DRM), and multi-risk analysis. Static and dynamic data derived from Internet of Things (IoT) components, together with risk-related information from official sources such as Civil Protection Agencies, offer significant opportunities for simulation, management, prediction, and response processes, thereby supporting more efficient and informed planning practices. This research contributes to the debate on the application of emerging digital technologies in territorial planning, with particular attention to multi-risk contexts, emphasizing preventive risk management rather than focusing exclusively on emergency response phases. The study was conducted within a research fellowship funded by the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) under DM 351/2022 M4C1 – Investment 4.1 “Doctorates for Public Administration.” The research framework included institutional collaboration with the Abruzzo Regional Civil Protection Agency, an international research period at the Facultad de Planeación Urbana y Regional of the Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México (UAEMex), and an additional collaboration with the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC). The Digital Twin is conceived as a digital replica of a physical system capable of integrating predictive technologies—such as IoT, Big Data, 5G, Cloud computing, Artificial Intelligence, and AR/VR—with georeferenced information systems (BIM, CIM, GIS). This integration enables the development of a multiscale, dynamic model capable of providing real-time information, advanced analyses, scenario simulations, and continuous interaction with the physical environment. As such, DTs can foster more flexible, adaptive, and rapidly updatable territorial planning processes, supporting intelligent and sustainable governance, citizen engagement, and participatory decision-making. The main objective of the research is to investigate the relationship between Digital Twins, traditional territorial planning, and disaster risk planning, with a focus on DRM, in order to accelerate analytical processes, prevent potential risks and damages, optimize operations, and enhance planning and design performance at the territorial scale. In line with the UNDRR framework and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the study adopts an integrated understanding of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and response capacity as the foundation for effective risk prevention and mitigation strategies. Within this context, Disaster Risk Assessment is identified as a key instrument for identifying critical scenarios and supporting adaptive planning. The research proposes a methodology aimed at shifting risk planning from an emergency-driven approach to a preventive, informed, and multirisk-oriented framework. Specifically, it develops a model for a Civil Protection Risk Management Plan (Piano di Gestione del Rischio – PGR), which simultaneously defines a formalizable structure for a Regional Digital Twin (RDT). The RDT is presented as a theoretical–conceptual model, supported by empirical experiences and collaborative activities conducted during the research period. The proposed RDT model addresses key challenges such as large-scale data management, heterogeneous data integration, and regional-scale adaptability, contributing to bridging the gap in existing literature, which is predominantly focused on urban and smart city applications. Overall, the study provides theoretical and methodological contributions to territorial-scale disaster risk management and preventive planning through the use of Digital Twin technologies.